What I'm saying is that as the arrow bends down it's relation to the light is changing too. This is going to change where the shadow hits, in addition to the change caused by the deflection. The only way to be consistent is to have the light move with the arrow so that it is shining from the same angle regardless of where the arrow is. The further from the light the arrow moves the longer the shadow. Take a flashlight and shine it on the arrow and then move the flashlight up and down. You will see the shadow changes size and shape. That's essentially what you're doing but the arrow is moving not the light. So the shadow is not staying constant in size and shape so it isn't a very accurate source of measurement. Whether it's enough change to make a noticeable difference in results I don't know.
EDIT: It will be "accurate" relative to itself. That's why you get the same result with the same size arrow everytime. But that can't be extrapolated to other arrows or enable you to use any kind of gradient to determine other spines. So you can take a known size arrow with known spine and determine if other arrows of same size are less than/equal to/or greater than the known spine but that's about it. If you take a series of known spines of the same size you may be able to create a scale but you'll find the degree of change in distance marked is not consistent (it should grow I think) So, for example you have known arrows of 20#, 30#, 40# 50# and mark the deflection of each. The distance between the 20# and 30# may be, say .5" and the distance between 30# and 40# may be .75" but the distance from 40# to 50# may be 1.5" because the arrow is starting to get a great enough angle from the light that shadow distortion is really starting to show. (the farther from the light source the greater the effect on the shadow) That's what I mean by the graph being a curve rather than a straight line. This scale may not work with a different diameter arrow so you have to have a seperate set of knowns.
So you've got two variables: the angle in relation to light changes which affects where the shadow is thrown, and the size and shape of the shadow changes.