Tex, the spine will vary. 5/16 will spine relatively low, probably in the 40# range, and the 3/8 may spine double that. But, like I said, they will vary quite a bit. If you want a specific spine it's better to buy them from a shaft supplier.
You have to be VERY careful with dowels. There is no quality control at all relative to defects and grain runout, and grain in yellow poplar is not as easy to see as it is in some species. Moisture content of the wood makes a big difference in spine, too.