None of this stuff is easy.
Outside of using a controlled electric oven, or a PID controlled forge, there comes lots of time spent in front of the forge and heat treating experience.
Knowing what your steel is doing and what condition it is in at what temp/color, etc., comes with spending hours in the shop.
You will hurt nothing by pulling your knife OUT of the forge.
You can ruin it by leaving it IN the forge too long.
Run your forge as low and steady as it will go, yet still be up in the austenizing range.
As it brightens up, pull it out frequently checking it with a handy magnet. Notice the color of the steel as it reaches non-magnetic. This is only 1418 degress - you still need to go to the NEXT bright color range for most of the shallow hardening steels.
I use a probe and display mostly to just get the forge running slowly and consistently.
I use magnetism, color and time control for knowing when to quench - in the correct quenchant.
None of this comes overnight.