DDyer...Your chances are very good. They usually go all the way into the 50's on the alternate list. What happens is that people who draw in the southern regions often forgo their permits because the moose density is so low. Then Fish and Game offers the tags to those on the alternate list. My wife was #17 three years ago and we were offered a tag for region L where we had just purchased 23 acres that had a moose wallow in it. So we took the tag and got a nice cow the last day. The advantage we had was the we only live 15 minutes from where we hunted. Good luck...sometimes illness or financial difficulties puts the alternates in good areas.