Whitetail density theory

[captain caveman]

I heard an interesting theory on my local se Ohio deer population density and coyotes.  Early 90's it wasn't unusual to see double digits of deer on a morning hunt.  Last few years it has been more common to see half that.  I blamed it on HD specifically a blue tongue outbreak in 2007.  While talking to a farmer last week and interesting theory arose.  The coyotes have become more prevelant and initially the deer were very naive to the danger they posed.  He relayed a story he witnessed of a coyote targeting a fawn and the fawn's distress call resulting in a mature doe thrashing the coyote.  Numbers are steadily rising, although it could be recovery from HD, I'm now intrigued by the idea of the whitetails becoming aware of the coyote threat and developing the required skills to survive in an environment with the risk of predation.

[Charlie Lamb]

The coyote is almost always the first to take the blame when game populations wane. Not sure I buy it!

Missouri use to be the "go to" destination for rabbit hunting, drawing hunters from around the midwest. Now you can't hardly find a rabbit to shoot at and you'll most often be told it's the dam coyotes.

I've hunted places in Texas, Wyoming and Montana where coyotes are much more prevalent and yet held amazing numbers of cottontails. Like I said. I don't buy it.

[billy dryden]

In Ohio in about 08 a person could shoot 6 deer in my county and either 12 or18 in the state with correct permits. I think that had an effect on the deer. Along with predators. The other problem is poaching because you can't keep track of all the deer harvested.

[BrushWolf]

Well here's my take on it. In the 90s the deer limit was less and seasons were not what they are today. I do believe that the coyotes are hard on fawning. But as a diehard coyote trapper I believe that their  population has followed the deer numbers. I have talked to our game officials and they claim the deer herd is just about where they want it. When our deer limit went from like one or two in the 90s to six in the early 2000s it doesn't take long to decrease numbers. Some diseases rapidly decrease numbers also. Will we see big numbers again, I have my doubts. Do coyotes eat them? Yes. Are they the main reason numbers are down?  IMO No.

[bucknut]

To add to that. We also have another predator that has become quite prevalent in our area. The Bobcat! They also are contributing to fawning incidents and turkey kills. The worst thing is our current game check system! There is no check and balance with this system. You can have as many tags as your printer can print. We have a huge problem here. Before you had to go to the local feed store or gas station and get a vinyl tag printed.  It is only going to get worse until they make a change.  Again just my opinion!

[captain caveman]

I agree with the tagging system being a joke, and a probable contributor.  Our woods have matured with less edge land and little logging and therefore support less deer.  The numbers seem to be about right.  It's not a complaint.  Overall I believe the herd is healthier.  Prey animals benefit from predation and dont see the coyotes as a problem.  Now domestic dogs left to harass wildlife are a very real problem.  Just an observation that the deer seem to have adapted to life with the coyote.  If get a chance kill some over next couple months and let us know what's in there bellies.

[DarrinG]

On much of the public lands here I feel the #1 problem is habitat (or lack thereof). Back in the 80's and early 90's I saw a healthy population increase in whitetail deer on a couple areas I hunt regularly, and I credited it to one major reason...timber harvest. The Forest Service used to manage the lands with Foresters who knew what they were doing, and allowed selective timber harvests on strategically planned areas. Soon afterward they caved in to the squeaky wheel groups who protested, got on the news at every chance and wrote letters upon letters demanding the Forest Service quit "raping" the forests and murdering trees. Its been many, many years since I've seen the FS in my area do any logging operations. Now we have tall, mature forest with little to no undergrowth and browse, and the wildlife populations (deer, ruffed grouse, turkey, rabbit, etc) have steadily been in a downward spiral population-wise. IMO, I think its a direct result of poor planning on the FS and giving in to the touchy-feely emotions of tree-huggers over sounds land/wildlife management.

[Warden609]

The coyote has my ultimate respect. I hunt them every year and they get my vote as the craftiest critter in my neck of the woods. Although they get negative attention when deer numbers are in question, deer are only some of their diet. The yodel dog will eat anything!!! Their stomach contents are always educational.

[DocWolf]

DarrinG, I could not agree more. The public' s idea of a beautiful forest to hike through and an outdoors man's idea of a life sustains forest are two completely different things. Mature forest in the western part of NC sustain less wildlife due to a limited food resource, thus decreasing the carrying capacity of deer, rabbits, grouse, ect.

[katman]

I certainly have respect for the coyotes ability to survive even with man trying to keep them in check. There was a study I remember reading about fawn predation by yotes and they took many. I feel deer densities and there fluctuations are for multi-factorial reasons.

[Michael Arnette]

Most states are managing deer herds for lower numbers to prevent auto collisions and disease. I think that is the biggest factor.
As far as depredation goes,I read a study done in the Deep South in the last five years that showed 80% mortality rate of fawns. Basically the local predators were keeping the herds and check with or without hunting pressure.
Coyotes and wolves tend to get a bad rap but bears and bobcats take their fair share. Not to mention cougars in many areas.
I trust most state wildlife departments very little. Just too much bs for too long from them. For decades our wildlife department refused to acknowledge that Cougars existed in Oklahoma, a few years ago they came out with a statement saying that there was a stable population in every county. What the heck!

In the end We as hunters are the only wildfire managers which we have control of. If you were noticing fewer deer you can do several things:

1: shoot fewer does (especially mature does)
2: hunt predators
3: talk to your neighbors about doing the same

In the end it will pay off to a more hunter friendly population level

[BrushWolf]

Heres some food for thought. The last 4 years or so bucks out number does when it comes to my trail camera pics.

[Stixbowdrew]

It's no coincidence Ohio is one of the top NR destinations east of the Mississippi, I think the herd is right where the division wants it. I do think Ohio is due for a fee increase, probably get beaten for that one haha.

I also heard some news about Ohio wanting to consolidate the parks, and the division of wildlife? If so that's bad news for the future.

[DarrinG]

DocWolf, I voice my opinion to the FS or WRC every chance I get about this issue. Its past time they start following sound forest management and quit giving in to the minority who happen to cry the loudest. In the western end of the state we have some of the largest parcels of public lands open to hunting but yet the FS and WRC continue to ignore sound forest/wildlife management just to appease a few panty-waist tree huggers.

[SuperK]

Michael Arnette, you are spot on!  I think maybe the quest for a "trophy" buck has resulted in an overkill of does in certain areas.  Let me explain.  I know you have to "let them go so they can grow" to have mature bucks but filling all your tags with does will eventually reduce the deer population.  (esp. the gun hunters) The county I hunt in had an approx. 50% doe harvest last year.  I know, I know, I ain't no wildlife biologist but I do know that the area I hunt has no where the deer it used to have.  Throw in the "introduction" of 'yotes and a nasty case of blue tongue for the past several years and its unreal how many deer aren't there!

[Shadowhnter]

We have a high coyote population and have had for years. Our deer heard in Eastern Kansas is also thriving, despite that fact and despite hemorrhagic fevers outbreaks. Look I've no doubt coyote prey on deer when opportunity arises and then mainly fawns but it's not as common as some may think. Coyotes would much rather fill their bellies with rodents and is most likely what you will see them hunting here.I think TV predator hunters use the deer killing claim to somehow justify them harvesting coyote beyond fur use purposes to keep bleeding hearts off their backs. Stop making excuses tv hunters...fur is fine to harvest and no excuses are required....
 Coyotes are NOT wolves and do not hunt like them. Coyotes would much rather take on cotton rats as a challenge where the worst thing possible is a sore lip, rather then to risk injury trying to take down deer. I see more coyotes eating deer already found dead. I agree as up above stated, tom bobcats are more of a threat then coyotes to deer, but even they much prefer rodents and rabbits.

[ChuckC]

The world is changing, every day, and has been since the beginning.  That includes animal or plant populations and distribution.  Changes in weather, feed availability, predator population, new predators, new diseases and many more will all affect the deer (and everything else).  When the stars line up and several of those changes put deep pressure on the animals of choice, the population drops.  If any have the traits that give them an edge over the adversity (and the others), and with a handful of good luck, they tend to prosper and multiply.  Over not too many years much of the new population has those traits or even more fine tuned versions of those traits.  Then, again the herd might prosper.  

Until along comes yet another big change.  That is the basis for evolution and is very discernible if you really look.

We are a part of it and a very major ( maybe THE) predator in many areas as well as "changer" or "cause" of changes.  It was brought up above.   Our quest for controlling the genetics of deer... making them "better" sure seems to cull for only one thing... antler growth.  Of all the things a buck might do, I am gonna guess that is very low on the totem pole regarding survival, and ....

in fact.. in an area where there are minimum antler restrictions, say 8 point or better, a genetic anomaly of having a larger 6 point rack would be a distinct advantage for survival.  Are we culling out the biggest and best ?

[TRAP]

Whitetails have co-existed at some level with bobcats, coyotes, bears and even mountain lions for decades.

Over the past 10-15 years, many  Midwest fish and game agencies, in response to outcries of "overpopulation" by Ag producers, insurance groups and legislators, gave hunters the ability or "opportunity" to reduce deer numbers in "hotspots" with liberal bag limits and extended seasons.  In many cases, hunters simply over-harvested adult female deer. Couple that with the worst Midwest drought on record in 2012 which led to a massive kill of adult deer by Epizootic Hemmorragic Disease (EHD) and all of a sudden folks are saying, "where did all the deer go?"

Please try to keep in mind that, just 70-80 years ago, white-tailed deer were pretty scarce on the Midwest landscape and the inflated numbers of deer many of us saw in the 80s and 90s could not possibly be sustained.  In many areas, deer reached "social carrying-capacity" and the people that lived amoung them and fed them their crops and ran over them with their cars said, "enough is enough."

The slow spread of Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) across our landscape will also impact deer population numbers.  Game departments are already liberalizing seasons and harvest methods to slow the spread of the potentially worse thing that has and will ever happen to our beloved whitetail deer population.

I'll never begrudge a coyote a tasty whitetail dinner.  I truly wish coyotes and his brethren predators (including human predators) were the only thing whitetails had to worry about.

[Sam McMichael]

I think disease and predators have significantly affected the deer population in this area. The population is down, yet bag limits stay high. Some say the insurance industry is very influential in this, as the lower the population, the fewer the number of car/deer collisions, reducing insurance pay outs. I don't know if that is true or not.

I don't share the kind feelings others have expressed for the coyote. I have seen the results of their hunting on my property many times. With that said, though, one can't help but admire his guile and savviness. Still, I'll take a shot at any opportunity.

[whiskyweasel]

This has, thus far, been one of the most nuanced discussions of predation effects on deer densities that I have ever seen. Bravo.

I'd like to add some content to the conversation in the hopes that y'all might find it interesting and informative. The Mississippi State University Deer Lab has recently begun a podcast on deer management (http://extension.msstate.edu/deeruniversity). Their last two episodes have been on predator impacts on deer populations. These are professors of wildlife biology who are attempting to synthesize decades of research into chewable portions. Full disclosure, I am a graduate student in this lab so I am biased as to how smart these guys are but suffice it to say, they know their stuff.

I look forward to hearing more from you guys. Thanks for all your perspectives.