What is funny is that a couple of years ago on the compound bow sites, people were arguing vehemently that KE was the variable to use to predict penetration.
I think momentum, based on the following math.
I can still do a little calculus...if I integrate Newton's second law over time while penetrating a target, the variable which predicts penetration changes with the type of force that is resisting the arrows passage.
If the resisting force is proportional to the arrow velocity, then penetration distance is exactly proportional to momentum.
If the resisting force is constant, independent of velocity, the the penetration distance is exactly proportional to KE. This is the case, by the way, with targets that slow the arrow by squeezing the shaft.
And, oddly enough, if the resisting force is proportional to velocity squared, the arrow never stops! Although after a while it is barely moving - but the force goes to zero faster than the velocity goes to zero such that the penetration continues forver.
In reality, of course, the force that slows an arrow is a complicated function that is a combination of forces that depend on the arrows velocity in different ways.
The other interesting thing is that shooting even the wimpy round wheeled compound that I shoot, if a bone tries to stop an arrow cold, the force is huge! It can easily reach a thousand pounds, all concentrated at the point of the broadhead. This is again a direct result of Newton's second law, the force times the time that that force is applied just equals the change in momentum. Say I apply 30 pounds (with my bow) over 30 inches to accelerate the arrow. Then if I try to stop that arrow in a quarter inch, the force will be 30 divided by 0.25 times 30 = 3600 pounds (assuming that the distances equate to times)! I.e., the bone has to take away the same momentum that the bow added, but in less than a hundreth of the time which makes the average force a hundred times larger.