FYI. Dialog is good. All of the following is intended as a friendly discussion.
Walt,
Good news about getting the wolf hunt.
Dave,
See that you are from KC. So am I. Maybe we can go shoot some time. I have a membership in a local club that has a 3D range.
"Predators follow prey populations" .... Some things are true even if they don't seem to "add up". For example. If you use common sense the world is flat. Round, spinning, and flying through space. Yea right (according to common sense) ! It took a thousand years after Copernicus first came up with scientific proof that the world was spinning and rotating around the sun for politicians, religious leaders, layman, biologists, etc. accepted that the earth was round, spinning, and rotating around the sun.
Population dynamics like alot of biological study is a tough science. Science tries to look at a single variable to make conclusions valid. Relatively easy most of the time when dealing with physics & chemistry. For the most part nearly impossible with population dynamics. Animals are mobile & specific ranges from year to year are hard to define. Animals are like people, there are variations from one place to another. Disease, drought, & other macro-environment variables complicate things. Example -everyone knows about food chains: acorns - deer - wolves, in that order. No acorns no deer, no deer, no wolves (# of acorns actually determines potential # of wolves). Food chain would be easy to study if it was that simple. It's a food web in the real world. Deer eat a variety of foods, wolves eat more than just deer, there can be predators other than wolves, etc.
Here is my conceptual take on predator-prey populations dynamics (food chain example for explanation). Isle Royale island in Lake Superior was studied by one of my professors. Isolated by water, i.e. ranges and populations easier to define. Little to no in/out migration. Moose got to the island first. Wolves came several years later. The average size of the Isle Royale moose herd is about 900 animals. The average over a couple of decades nearly the same with or without wolves.
Without wolves the moose population rapidly increases and keeps increasing until the carrying capacity was exceeded, habitat was significantly degraded, moose starved & became more suspectible to disease & population crashed. Population of moose without predators would then rapidly recover to excessive levels, habitat would not have time to recover completely and be severely degraded & another big moose population crash. Average population about 900 moose. Population range over time about 900 to 2000 to 100 to 900 to 2000 to 100.... & over time the habitat could be degraded so badly that it would not support an average population of 900.
Now we have wolves. The moose herd is on it's growth phase. Moose population increases slowly, then as more prey is available more wolf pups survive. Size of moose herd increases first then wolf population increases (not the other way around). Wolf population increases and slows down the growth rate of the moose herd. Eventually the wolf population catches up with the moose population and can actually cause it to decrease slowly (usually by killing moose babies to feed wolf babies). As the moose population decreases the wolf population decreases (a lag of year or two, but following the moose herd). Population dynamics would be something like 900 to 1000 to 1100 to 1200 to 1100 to 1000 to 900 to 800 to 700 to 800 to 900... Average about the same, but much smaller range of populations. Severee habitat degradation less likely & crashes due to disease or starvation less likely & severee. Wolves mediate population levels but do not control them. Moose food and habitat control the moose population.
Ray & Precurve,
I do not know any biologists that claim predators always go for the weak and sick. Sometimes they go for the young, or stupid ones, or healthy & slow, or the ones at the wrong place & time. Sometimes they go for healthy and adult deer just for fun. Most of the time predators go for what is the easiest and least dangerous for them to take down. Predator's often know things we do not. Like dogs smelling cancer before anyone else knows anything is wrong.
Biologists, like lawyers, have to learn how to get thick skin. Biologist's like lawyers are a diverse group. Same as hunters. There was a hunter in IL about 35 years ago that brought a calf (domesticed cow calf) into the check station. Another orange coated idiot to the local farmers. All hunters are of course not idiots. The professional biologists I know (& myself) think birth control for wolves or deer is a stupid idea (another good topic by itself).
Precurve,
Not sure if you are joking around a little bit, being serious, or taking a saterical shot at me or biologists in general, or all of the above. I'm a big boy & can deal with any of them. Even use satire myself (ask the lawyer commenting on this string).
I don't remember using "all" or 100% or anything like that about anything we have talked about. The sick deer were just an example. I still stand behind my opinoin that for the most part predators take young, weak, sick, injured. If wolves are bad for taking healthy adult deer, what are we (humans) ? Know any trophy hunters ? 70 lb. first year doe with a injured leg & 300 lb. 180 inches of headgear healthy whitetail buck standing side by side - which one would the majority of "meat hunters" shoot at ? Most of the time, which one do you think a wolf would go for ?
Doubt if all the wolves will die off due to starvation, maybe lead poisoning. The wolves were surviving on your farmland a few hundred thousand years before any of your or anyone else's kin got there or anyplace else.
I am a part owner of a family farm in IL. Relatives buried on it that my Grandmother who died last year at 98 didn't remember. Other side of the family is a farm that was in its second generation by the Civil War. Kill every last wolf if you want on your land. Kill every last deer, rabbit, squirrel, song bird, snake, etc. if you want on your land. Don't shoot or hunt anything if you want on your land.