I have a lot of experience with all three because I used to run a shipping store. We shipped stuff with all three everyday.
There are pros and cons with each. And no matter which one you use something could happen to your package. Especially something long and skinny' like a bow.
If you want tracking then USPS is not the way to go unless you do the signature required option. Delivery confirmation only tells you that it arrived at the destination post office, not that it was delivered to the recipient.
The general rule of thumb was go ground with UPS and overnight with FedEx. If you looking at price then the size/weight of the package would determine wether to go USPS or UPS. Over a certain weight UPS is less expensive. That being said, I have been shipping all the Wild Fire Artistry plaques via USPS. So far no problems!
With USPS I use their free priority mail boxes. I figure if something does get destroyed they can't blame the box, since I am using the box they supply. The box is a common reason insurance claims are denied. If you are obviously shipping in a used box, your claim will be denied with any carrier.