Been keeping journals including night time shining deer for 20 years here in KS. The peak estrous is virtually the same year to year.
When anyone says the "rut" they need to define it. If we mean the peak estrous- when 80% of the does are bred- it really is simple to figure. Look at deer structure and birthing dates in certain areas of the country- they are consistent from year to year. Gestation is fixed! That means in a given area the MAJORITY of does were bred (thus in estrous) the same time virtually every year. With that said there are certainly variables such as pressure, weather fronts, crop harvest, doe-buck ratio. . . all that affects MOVEMENT- but peak estrous (when most of the does come in) is virtually the same exact time every year- give or take a couple of days.
To zero in on the peak days of November all you need to is watch for the first estrous in the third week of October. It is amazingly simple by shining deer at night. I watch various doe family groups feeding all fall. Then in those magic days of October- you will see a mature buck or two showing up with the doe family groups. The bucks will be with them for a few days- then poof! The bucks are gone again. Now- just plot out 28 days from there and you have peak estrous.
Peak estrous may NOT be the best time to hunt. It all depends what you are looking for. For my NR friends who want to see lots of activity and may be content with that 3 year 125-130ish buck, this peak estrous week can be a great time.
However, if you want the really mature buck, peak can be pretty difficult. The Big Boys have the estrous does locked down in some out of the way place. I find the week before peak estrous and the week after are prime for Big mature buck sightings and vulnerability. I really like that back end week where there are still a few does coming in and the Big Boys are on the prowl looking for them. Its usually colder, less activity, and you are feeling like you missed it. . . then the bruiser shows up!
I find telling guys this stuff always seems kind of weird for me because I surely am not the guy making money writing books and articles. And for sure, someone will have a story where it was different for them. But remember, you could be 400 yds from an estrous doe and think every thing is done, dead, or some "trickle" thing. While the guy 400 yds over the hill from you is having the greatest day of his life. YOUR experience in the woods does not define the rut, estrous, gestation, or any other factual evidence.
The ENTIRE MONTH of November is awesome here in the midwest. Perhaps the moon helps determine "some" feeding patterns- but the estrous is the estrous! You just have to plan on the peak of estrous then work around that considering variables for movement like weather, crops, etc.
Take it for what it is worth. Probably 2C.
Oh yea- based on 20 years of watching this- this week should be that first short flurry of estrous. I will be out shining again! Let you know what I see. . . guessing 28 days from October 23rd will be the peak week around here.
Dan in KS