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Author Topic: Michigan-Deer Winter Severity Index  (Read 532 times)

Offline Mojostick

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Michigan-Deer Winter Severity Index
« on: February 14, 2014, 09:49:00 AM »
Click the top link for the 2-12-14 update...

 http://www.deer.fw.msu.edu/

Offline habujohn

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Re: Michigan-Deer Winter Severity Index
« Reply #1 on: February 14, 2014, 06:02:00 PM »
I live in the Iron Mountain area and I know that the deer around here are in trouble.  Bitter cold weather for over six weeks and some very deep snow.  Last year was a piece of cake for the deer and yet I found a number of dead deer on my 80 acres in the spring, this year I expect much worse.
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Offline Hummer3T

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Re: Michigan-Deer Winter Severity Index
« Reply #2 on: February 14, 2014, 06:43:00 PM »
Hunting white-tails anywhere in the northern part of North America will be a real challenge next year. we lost many animals several years ago,then recovered for a couple years, but last winter, and with this being the second bad winter in a row I think our wt herd/population is done for the next 4-5 years.
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Offline Jon Stewart

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Re: Michigan-Deer Winter Severity Index
« Reply #3 on: February 14, 2014, 11:14:00 PM »
I was up your way last fall baiting bear for a wounded warrior.

Ah the Kingsford Flivers!!!  Wonder how many on here knows what a Fliver is?

Offline SELFBOW19953

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Re: Michigan-Deer Winter Severity Index
« Reply #4 on: February 14, 2014, 11:34:00 PM »
A Fliver used to be a Model T, not sure if that was the first use of the name or not.
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Offline NimRand

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Re: Michigan-Deer Winter Severity Index
« Reply #5 on: February 15, 2014, 04:56:00 AM »
I do. My brother took a job with Superior Aviation in Iron Mountain. They settled in Quinnesec. My nephew and niece were Flivers for a few years before the family moved south to Elsie MI.

Offline Ibow

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Re: Michigan-Deer Winter Severity Index
« Reply #6 on: February 15, 2014, 09:50:00 AM »
I've lived near Lake MI all my life and worked at Consumer's Power (the elec utility in MI) for 35 years. I cannot remember a worse winter. It has been awful.

The amount of snow is crazy and it just keeps coming. While they are calling for a bit of a moderation in temps this coming week, I cannot imagine how long it is going to take to get rid of all this snow.

I've seen a number of deer lately along the road and they are waist deep in it, nibbling on brush etc. Must be awful for them.

I've often heard that they do just fine no matter what into Feb but if the winter/snow/cold lingers, it's going to be tough for them. With the amount of snow out there right now, we'll need a MAJOR warm up soon.    :scared:

Offline Bobby Urban

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Re: Michigan-Deer Winter Severity Index
« Reply #7 on: February 15, 2014, 11:45:00 AM »
Deep snow = not too bad.  Deep cold = not too bad.

Deep snow AND deep cold for an extended period = BAD!!

I think we have had a definable BAD winter here in Michigan.

Offline Dave Worden

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Re: Michigan-Deer Winter Severity Index
« Reply #8 on: February 16, 2014, 07:40:00 AM »
Don't forget the turkeys, guys.  They have an even tougher time with this deep snow.  I suspect both turkeys and deer are going to be a bit scarce this year.
"If I was afraid of a challenge, I'd put sights on my bow!"

Offline killinstuff

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Re: Michigan-Deer Winter Severity Index
« Reply #9 on: February 16, 2014, 08:16:00 AM »
I think mother nature is a little smarter than we are.  I've been out a number of times snow shoeing and what deer we do have around here are in the cedar swamps doing well. The heavy snow droops the cedar limbs down so they can eat and we had the most acorns this past fall that I ever saw. Add in the 1000's of tons of bait deer were feed last fall and we had butterball deer heading into winter.  We've had it so easy for so many years folks forgot what a real winter was.
lll

Offline Mojostick

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Re: Michigan-Deer Winter Severity Index
« Reply #10 on: February 16, 2014, 08:51:00 AM »
The Winter of 1978/79 was the worst in the LP.

Although, WSI numbers are a bit like Hurricane Category #'s and earth quake Richter scale #'s. A Cat 2 storm with a high surge for a long duration can have bigger impact than a fast moving storm of a higher category and a smaller, shallow earth quake can cause far more damage, especially if in an area where the soils are less stable.

If a crust on snow develops, it can allow deer to move about in search of native browse. Deep snow with no crust can be worse.

The WSI index average for the 1970's in the UP was 87.6. During the Winter of 78/79 it hit 147.7.

The average in the 1970's in the NLP was 60.1. In the 78/79 it was 99.1

There have been years where over 100,000 deer died in a Michigan Winter. They were 1955/56, 1978/79, 1985/86, 1993/94.

Just was with hurricane #'s and earth quake #'s, the highest doesn't necessarily mean the worst kill. That's why deer herd numbers are so important. The worst Winter kill for a region occurred in 1978/79, where the NLP lost an estimated 84,000 deer. That's just the NLP.

But to compound problems, when we go into Winter with deer numbers too high for the habitat, then we just don't lose present deer, but we lose future deer and lots of them. With a tough Winter and deer herds too high for native habitat, we can lose 50-70% of the fawns dropped the following Spring, as many will drop fawns weighing as little as 4 pounds, where 8 pounds is more average. Some 50% of fetal growth occurs in the final 6 weeks of the term. When stress hits a critical point, that growth is retarded.

I know bashing DNR's for "not enough deer" is a popular pastime on chatrooms. I get that. But with this Winter, we dodged a major bullet by having a smaller herd going into Winter. If we had huge northern herds, with most of the Northern forests being 35 years older than in 1978 and that much further removed from the 1890's-1920's timber booms, we'd of possibly had our worst Winter kills ever.

Online Ray Lyon

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Re: Michigan-Deer Winter Severity Index
« Reply #11 on: February 16, 2014, 09:00:00 AM »
I believe if you read some of the biologists reports you'll find it's the extended snow/cold into spring that is the true killer.  This has been a real winter however if it breaks up early most of the critters will be fine.

As for turkeys,  it's all about food source and no freezing rain.

Check back in late March early April and if we're still into winter weather there will be serious consequences.
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Online Ray Lyon

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Re: Michigan-Deer Winter Severity Index
« Reply #12 on: February 16, 2014, 09:03:00 AM »
P.s. mojo is correct about deer numbers and habitat.
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Offline Mojostick

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Re: Michigan-Deer Winter Severity Index
« Reply #13 on: February 16, 2014, 09:31:00 AM »
Killinstuff,

The adult deer in your area are likely doing just fine because herd numbers have been reduced and the deer there likely have enough food, per deer.

Offline Mojostick

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Re: Michigan-Deer Winter Severity Index
« Reply #14 on: February 16, 2014, 09:32:00 AM »
I'll see if I can get a report on the turkey situation. My guess is they aren't doing as well as adult deer.

Offline Mojostick

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Re: Michigan-Deer Winter Severity Index
« Reply #15 on: February 16, 2014, 12:10:00 PM »
Looking at examples of how deer herd numbers impact Winter kill, it's estimated that the UP lost roughly 300,000 deer in the 1995/96 and 1996/97 Winters. Yet, the WSI numbers for those years, while high, averaged around 119 and 105 for the UP in those years. The biggest problem during those years was that the UP deer herd had achieved what was likely it's last deer population "boom".

During the Winters with the big die-off's, the UP herd had ballooned to nearly twice it's suggested population goal.

Offline kill shot

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Re: Michigan-Deer Winter Severity Index
« Reply #16 on: February 17, 2014, 11:20:00 AM »
I'm no game biologist but I see things. On state lands I noticed where there used to be lots of deer the woods has little to no deer sign. The woods is open with no understory. Deer like cover and food. Why can't we cut trees and take out the main part of the wood and get some sunlight to the forest floor? I think this would make for a healthier deer herd and more quality hunt opportunities. The deer need  cover for protection from the elements and the downed trees for brows.

Offline Mojostick

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Re: Michigan-Deer Winter Severity Index
« Reply #17 on: February 17, 2014, 12:03:00 PM »
State forests are now managed for long term sustainability.

Timber prices really tanked after the housing bubble burst. As prices rise, more private landowners will consider timbering.

For those who hunt public land exclusively, you need to become active when forest planning public input is sought.

When the Fed's do these open meetings, the tree huggers/anti-timber folks will show up, along with the old growth forest lovers and the spotted butt hawk lovers society, etc. But who rarely shows up is deer hunters.

On the other hand, the grouse hunters have been very active in aspen timber policy, for without cutting, grouse hunting will become a thing of the past.

This is from 2005. The USFS in Michigan had open meetings about the 10-15 year forest plans and almost no deer hunters showed up. We're about up for a new plan and I suggest hunting groups give their input...

Thoughts sought on national forest plans

 By Steve Griffin
 Field Editor

 Midland, Mich. — Michigan’s three national forests — comprising nearly 3 million acres of some of the state’s best hunting and fishing spots — are in the final stages of mapping management plans for the next 10 to 15 years.
 And managers of those forests are eager to hear what citizens have to say about their ideas.

 The Ottawa and Hiawatha national forests in the Upper Peninsula, and the Huron-Manistee National Forests (two once-separate Lower Peninsula forests combined into one) released proposed management plans in March, and held public meetings throughout April.

 Now, citizens have until late June to weigh on the proposals.
 The plans have been in development for about two years. In each case, officials mapped several alternative approaches, and indicated the one they thought best fit the forest and its users.

 In about one year, each forest’s preferred alternative will be judged against the comments, and a management plan will be adopted for each.

 The Huron-Manistee forests comprise about 1 million acres of northern Lower Peninsula lands, through which flow two of the state’s best known trout streams, the Au Sable and Manistee rivers, along with several other fine rivers. Thanks to their location within a couple of hours of drive time to millions of Michiganders, the forests are heavily used by recreationists, including hunters and anglers.

 Huron-Manistee officials considered three alternative management plans. Their preference is one that would include some semi-primitive motorized areas along with non-motorized ones; aggressively treating hazardous forest fuel situations and creating firebreaks; restoring barrens and savannahs, initially at a moderate pace but boosted nearly three-fold in 40 years; and maintaining current harvest rates of aspen and birch.

 On the nearly 1-million-acre Ottawa National Forest, managers weighed four management alternatives and selected as its preferred alternative one that remains focused on hardwoods, but with some increase in aspen and conifers and a greater variety of forest types and conditions. It’s something of a midpoint between a strict focus on a minimally managed hardwood forest and aggressive management for grouse and deer. Under the preferred alternative, ATV access would be limited to designated roads open to vehicle traffic, and to designated trails.

 The Hiawatha National Forest comprises about 900,000 acres, mainly in two saddle-like blocks in the central and eastern Upper Peninsula.

 Four management alternatives were considered by the Hiawatha, each taking close looks at the main issues of managing vegetation, primarily trees, and managing recreation on the forest’s lands and waters.

 The preferred plan would provide a continued, sustainable flow of timber products — and increase motorized recreational opportunities.

 It strikes a midpoint between the other two new alternatives on non-motorized, conventionally motorized boats and personal watercraft on lakes within the forest; it also falls between them in miles of snowmobile trail eyed. It would ban cross-country travel by snowmobile.

 The planning process used for the three Michigan forests is in line with the new Environmental Management Systems approach adopted by the Forest Service late last year. It allows forest managers to more quickly adapt to changing conditions such as wildfires and invasive species, and cuts the time required to draft management plans from as much as seven years to as few as two.

 Groups such as the Ruffed Grouse Society have praised the new approach as a red-tape-cutting process.

“These new regulations shift the emphasis from producing paperwork to protecting forest health and forest wildlife.” RGS senior wildlife biologist Dan Dessecker said in a news release.

 To learn more about the forests for their proposed management plans, or to register your comments, contact the forests at:

 HURON-MANISTEE NATIONAL FORESTS, 1755 S. Mitchell St., Cadillac, MI 49601; phone (231) 775-2421;  www.fs.fed.us/r9/hmnf;  

 OTTAWA NATIONAL FOREST, E6248 US Hwy. 2, Ironwood, MI 49938; phone; documents on forest’s web site,  www.fs.fed.us/r9/ottawa;  comments due June 23;

 HIAWATHA NATIONAL FOREST, 2727 N. Lincoln Rd., Escanaba, MI 49829; phone (906) 786-4062, e-mail [email protected].
 
__________________
 I’d like to dispel the myth that the DNR’s main job is to manage wildlife.
 It isn’t.
 DNR officials manage people. You. Me. Everyone who picks up a gun or a bow. We, in turn, help them to manage wildlife populations by killing more or fewer of the animals we choose to hunt.
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Offline Mojostick

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Re: Michigan-Deer Winter Severity Index
« Reply #18 on: February 17, 2014, 12:15:00 PM »
My property borders USFS land in the Grouse Management Program. Since people are so against clearcuts, the Fed's sent me and all neighbors in the area a survey/consent form, to essentially ask if it was OK to clearcut, with lots of hassles and protests from locals.

I quickly approached all my neighbors and begged them to happily approve the aspen clear cutting because it help all our deer hunting. Luckily, all my neighbors agreed and we all sent back the form saying USFS wouldn't get any grief from us and to please cut more.

USFS did cut back then and the clear cuts are game havens.

I'd contact the HMNF and ask them when the next forest planning public meetings are coming up and then get fellow hunters to attend...
 http://www.fs.usda.gov/main/hmnf/home

Offline Mojostick

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Re: Michigan-Deer Winter Severity Index
« Reply #19 on: February 17, 2014, 12:21:00 PM »
If you can't get Michigan deer hunters to show up, then you could join the RGS in Michigan, because they are very active in public land timbering input...
 http://www.ruffedgrousesociety.org/

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