This may seem like an odd analogy but it's really not.
One of the critical aspects of hunting that doesn't get near the "air time" is blood tracking Both blood tracking "do's and don'ts". TV shows rarely cover it, magazines rarely do articles teaching the finer aspects of blood tracking, even internet chat rooms don't touch on it that much.
Perhaps one reason is, while many hunters have lots of experience with everything before the shot, not nearly as many have vast experience after the shot. Meaning, if a hunter has only killed 10-20 deer in a lifetime or been on 10-20 track jobs, that really isn't that much experience for when the trail goes cold.
I've been lucky to be a part of a club where we've always had lots of deer and lots of deer hunters, as well as liberal tags. I've never counted the number of blood tracking "jobs" I've been on over the last 35-40 years (we always called them "tracking job", for some unknown reason), but it's over 500.
With all those track jobs, I thought that the missing airliner story was a lot like the needle in the haystack attempt of trying to find a dead deer once you're lost blood. Basically, it's nearly impossible without a line of clues.
Sure, some have stumbled on a dead deer if they leave last blood and go on a goose chase, but your odds crash to the low single digits, percentage wise, if all you do is walk in a grid of the suspected direction, without blood.
So for those reading that may not have lots of blood tracking experience, here's a few suggestions.
1. Make sure you have flagging tape. Toilet paper can blow away or become useless in the event of rain. You can go back and pull the flagging tape. Don't be afraid to tape every couple of feet, even if you can clearly see blood. You may have to come back and it may rain.
2. Keep the number of trackers low. Too many guys make noise and can jump wounded deer and too many boots can kick over leaves with blood. Also, with too many guys, someone is always jumping too far ahead of the last blood and you end up going too fast. That's leads up to #3.
3. Go slow. Then slow down some more.
4. This one is critical-if you lose blood, go back to last blood. Never give up on finding blood, even a speck, unless you're about ready to give up finding the deer. It may take 4-5 times of going to last blood to find either where the deer turned or finding the next drop. Without blood, you have no idea what direction the deer went, just like the investigators don't know if that airliner went down to the tip of South Africa or up towards Mount Everest. It could have crashed or it have landed at some airport in unfriendly land and is hidden in a terrorist controlled jumbo jet hanger. No clue.
5. If after dark, take several additional flashlights and leave them on the ground with 2 points of last blood. That creates a reference point of direction. Without it, it's really easy to get totally twisted around in the dark.
6. If you hit the deer too far back, you really should wait until the next morning, if an evening hit or at least give the deer 8 hours if a morning hit. If a liver or gut hit, you'll find the deer if you play it right and you won't find the deer if you play it wrong. In my opinion, hunters rushing a liver or gut hit is the main reason deer hunters lose otherwise recoverable deer. If you give the deer time to die with a liver or gut hit, it will likely go about 150 yards and lay down-and if you don't bother it, it'll die right there.
7. If you must look for deer hit too far back within 3-4 hours, due to rain or time limits, be as quiet as possible. If you find a spot where the deer laid down, a pool of blood but the deer isn't there, then you simply have to back out and leave. You jumped the deer, even if you didn't see or hear it, and all you'll do is jump it for a mile and lose blood as the deer will invariably bolt off in an odd direction. Walking deer are easier to blood track than one bounding off at high speed. Come back the next day or ask a friend to look the next day if you can't. That's another reason why ample flagging tape is good. Someone not on the original track job can come in and take over. Always pull the tape when all is said and done.
8. If you swear you double lunged the deer, but now you've gone 150-200 yards and still no dead deer, quietly back out and give it a few hours.
9. I like a mix of light. Lantern light is good, but it's also nice to have a big Q-beam type with an over the shoulder battery pack. You can use it only when needed and you'll get lots of life from the battery. The big light is nice when blood is temporarily lost.
10. Don't always look down. Often you'll find blood at waist level, on ferns, branches, saplings, etc.
Anyhow, these are just a few tips. But the mystery of the airliner and looking for a deer without blood is actually more similar than it may seem. The key is, if you lose blood, go back and find blood and go back again and again and again, if you must.